Israel’s position in the crisis Putin had created in the Ukraine maybe complex, but not too complicated to understand. For the democratic countries this conflict has to end with the Ukraine free from Russian occupation, and Putin remaining in power.
Why is it
so important to stand for the Ukraine?
Simple, if
one democracy falls, sooner or later, all democracies fall. And of course,
morally it is the right thing to do.
Why should Putin
remain in power?
Simple,
nukes.
To come out
victorious from this crisis he does not need to conquer all of Ukraine. He
wants to. Especially now, because his pride had been injured severely, due to his
current setbacks. But in advance he made a contingency; securing the
“independence” of the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. With these
gains he can pretend to have wone. But if his regime is threatened, a likely
outcome of the military stalemate and the growing international isolation, then
he might take everyone he can with him. Is he that crazy? He is crazy. Crazy
enough to bomb thousands of civilians in Chechnya, Syria, and the Ukraine.
Crazy enough to kill political opponents. Even when they flee to western
countries. This is why the entire world has no desire to find out how much.
And that is
precisely why Israel, and the rest of US allies in the Middle East, have to
walk on a thin rope. Because if Putin survives, and he has to survive, whether
we like it or not. Any country that opposed him, will receive Russia’s wrath. NATO
has the ability to deter him. The economic giants of East Asia are not located
in strategically vulnerable positions. And are too economically powerful. Russia
will need them for the recovery. Israel has Russia and Iran as its northern
neighbors. And the first one has on its agenda the elimination of Israel. If Russia
aids the Iranian efforts in any way, things could be very bad for Israel, and
its civilians.
Ignoring
this is hypocritical. The prime responsibility of any Israeli government is the
safety and wellbeing of its citizens. And time and time again Israel encounters
criticism that forgets that. Some of it comes from surprising corners. Yes,
Israel should have done more for the Ukrainian refugees, much more. But that is
a separated matter; related, but separated. The point here is that president Biden
gave no assurances against Russian aggression. Not to Israel, and not to the
other ME allies. This is bad leadership on his part.
This hypocrisy
has another level to it. It asks Israel to trust US leadership in the crisis. This
is when Israel has enormous difficulties trying to trust the American leadership
over the crisis of Iran’s nuclear program. The emerging deal seems worse than
the one before, according to the Israeli PM, Naftali Bennet. It is a strange
situation, where the stronger party acts as if it is the weaker one in the US Iran
relationships. And the US policy in the Ukrainian crisis looks as a
continuation of this appeasement. President Biden declared in advance that
there won’t be US or NATO troops in the Ukraine, on the ground. To be clear,
there are damn good reasons not to actually do that. More than one dynamic can lead
to nuclear exchange. But a case can be made in favor of the will to go to the
brink, and against giving it all up in advance. The will to go to the brink is
why the US came on top from the Berlin crisis of 1949, and the Cuban missiles
crisis of 1962. The refusal to even consider it led to the return of tyranny in
Syria. A crisis, the US, and the free world lost. Lost to Russia and Iran.
What can Putin
do in response to such an American move, if it had taken place?
Very
little. He could have sent some of his troops to Cuba and Venezuela. These forces
won’t be a match to the US forces in the region. They will put more strain his
budget. And won’t be killing Ukrainians.
Biden’s actual
policy towards Putin’s aggression, suggests that should a crisis erupts between
Israel and Russia over the former’s support for the US and the Ukraine, Israel will
be on its own. And that makes the hypocrisy of the critic even worse.
Zelensky
has every right to expect support from everyone that believe in life, freedom,
and sovereignty. And in everyday that passes Putin gives more and more reasons for
decent people to deliver on that. But right now, the Biden policy had literally,
shifted the burden of defending the free world, from the USA, to everyday people
in the Ukraine. People that now have to choose between life and liberty. And that
is already a defeat for liberty. Putin’s war may turn out to be the worse pyrrhic
victory in history, but the free world has already lost. In Syria that policy
brought ISIS to center stage. In the vast expanses of Russia and the Ukraine, Islamists
of various kinds, ultra-nationalists, neo-Nazis, and neo-Bolsheviks, can find
safe heavens. A multiple of Afghanistans. Shifting the blame for this from president
Biden will require greater acrobatics of hypocrisy. One that won’t necessarily
blame Israel. But by then it wouldn’t matter. Israel is one iota in the big
mess Biden allowed Putin to create.
